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Suited Connectors OOP

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  • Suited Connectors OOP

    Thoughts on how I played this hand in 25NL?

    I open 3.5bb from the HJ with 9c8c
    Button calls
    Flop 3dQcTc
    I bet 7bb
    Button raises to 19bb
    I shove for 100bb total
    Button snap calls shows QT
    I miss everything and get stacked.

    I feel like on the flop raise from the button he has QT, KJ, TTT, 333, and maybe AQ. I guess he could have also played AA this way as well.

    Anyway, my shove seems like strictly a gamble because he isnt folding anything but KJ or AQ here.

    How could I have played it better?

  • #2
    You have 12 outs on the flop, and you are 45%-55%, so basically a coin flip. It is an aggressive play. The problem is what do you do on the turn if one of your outs doesn't show up and he makes a big bet or jams? You will have to fold. I would play this hand aggressively like you did about 40% of the time and 60% check/call the flop and check/call a reasonable bet on the turn.



    • JJoseph
      JJoseph commented
      Editing a comment
      Yeah, thats exactly why I shoved. Figured that would allow me to see turn and river with a little bit of fold equity. Thank you for your input. This type of convo is invaluable to me as I try to improve.

  • #3
    What's our value 3-bet shoving range? AA-QQ (15) TT 33 (12) QT (9) so 36 combos, this rip is probably fine. Only thing that bugs me is we get coolered by better flush draws and straight draws sometimes so I'm not sure.....flip side we make A high flush draws fold some times


    • NJpokermike36
      NJpokermike36 commented
      Editing a comment
      Dilly- While I agree from time to time the villain will have a bigger flush draw. But does it matter? If the flush comes on the turn or the river, the money will go in anyway. At least this way he has some fold equity. Would I do this 100% of the time? No but against most I would use the 60-40 split.

    • Dilly
      Dilly commented
      Editing a comment
      Yeah I'm sure it is shoved at some frequency, I just think we probably prefer nut flushes, KJ, J9, K9 etc but we do have a ton of hands that want to rip for value so we might need to use everything we can as a bluff

  • #4
    I could defend either calling or jamming. Is there a high hand prize if the Jc comes and you hit the straight flush?


    • #5
      I don't love this shove. I guess it's ok on paper. But I think Pio may choose to call this one. This draw has 12 outs versus made hands. You have to call 12bbs to win 34.5bbs so we only need 26% equity to call.

      Typically Pio chooses to call draws that are getting a good price to call and putting the weaker draws not getting a good price in the bluffs.

      In fact, from OOP, Pio may even choose to check this on the flop as CO versus Button in the solvers is checking the flop often.

      If you know your opponent to be Tight Aggressive or Tight Passive, c-betting is an ok adjustment, but if either one of those raises, you cannot shove. If the player is loose then you should check this.