Too Passive on Turn?

[Dilly]

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 5 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker - https://upswingpoker.com/convert

UTG: $43.08 (172 bb)
CO: $29.88 (120 bb)
BU: $20.35 (81 bb)
SB (Hero): $53.18 (213 bb)
BB: $10.00 (40 bb)

Villain 679 hands
V 28 P 24
F3B 59 4B 0
Fld to cbet 31/43/75

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with K♥ J♥
UTG raises to $0.75, 2 players fold, Hero 3-bets to $3, 1 fold, UTG calls $2.25

Flop: ($6.25) 7♥ A♣ 6♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($14.25) Q♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $7.12, SB (Hero) folds

We only have a slight range advantage on this board against our own HJ flat SB 3! range, probably slightly more against population, but not enough to bet range, I like going polarized here but BDFD with blockers to the best aces should still be bet.

Normally I check turn with my whole range after betting flop OOP, but here we turn some marginal made hands and wind up with over 50% of our range being AX since we polarized on the flop, I think I should keep betting here, or if I do check range this needs to be a check raise bluff. If we check shove this turn, what breakout of bluffs to value should we have?

Thoughts?

[SeanT]

1) I might have just called called Preflop. I know the villain is fairly loose and all the charts have this as a 3bet, but KJs should flop well and you are going to playing it OOP. My range would be a little more polarized. I 3bet KJo rather than KJs. Jonathan has a youtube video with KJs in the SB. He has KJdd in SB with effective stacks at 150bb+, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbaEAXNnzXA. He talks about calling in this position with all his suited broadway hands. But this was 3 years ago so I don't know how much his philosophy has change on this. With all that said I think a 3bet is fine and I like your sizing.

2) I don't know if I'd bet the flop. Villain is loose but he still is RFI UTG so he range should be fairly strong to begin with and he is calling your 3bet. I found looking at hands run through a solver that I was CBeting the flop to much when I missed. I'd be using my KJs for my 3Bet bluff range, so I'd be check/calling, check/folding with this base on the flop and how well I think I know the villain.

3) The turn is a tough decision because if you bet it I think you should 3 barrel if you miss. This is a play I've been making recently and have had good results. Given the villains stats and that he called your flop bet I would put him on a range of marginal hand and draws that will call the flop. Their stats say he is calling with 57% of hands on the turn. So a bet $9 on the turn would make his MDF about 61%. I think, however, the check/fold is fine because your original range was polarized this is going to be one of your worst hands and your rest of your range should have enough equity to find the 66% of hand need to call.

[Dilly]

@seanT

That video is for a tournament, with no ante, high rake structure, and a tougher game on average we can't flat from the SB. Being OOP incentivizes us a to 3-bet over flatting because the lower SPR diminishes the IP players positional advantage.

On the flop I definitely agree his range should be relatively strong and we probably don't want to bet our whole range on this flop. But even if we bet polarized, our range has so few potential bluffs we would almost definitely still be betting this hand with BD equity and blockers to strong hands. If we bet AQ+ AA for value on this flop, check AJ AT A5 and all the underpairs, we can bet all of our air and still have more value than bluffs.

I definitely agree if we bet the flop polarized this hand is still betting turn.