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River spot?

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  • River spot?

    Live game 2/5 , 1500 effective

    Villain is capable with back pack early 30s. Only been at table with him for about 45 mins.

    Villain in cutoff raises to 20. Button calls. I call in small blind with 77. Button calls. 4 to the flop. Flop is 222. Check to villain. Bets 50. I call. Turn is 3. I check. Villain Bets 125, I call. River 3. I check. Villain bets quickly 400, he is breathing heavy through his mask which I saw him do previous large pot he ended up losing. I end up calling, he shows 88. My thoughts: I believe he knew my range was capped in small blind not 3 betting and so I did think he was capable of this line with AK. I knew he had range advantage but I also believed he makes this polar river bet with ak, maybe aq. I don’t love my river call but based on his actions I didn’t put him at the top of his range and I need to win about 33% of time, 400 to win about 1200. Was surprised he turned over 88 with that size on river. Thoughts? When would you have let the hand go?

  • #2
    In general I can get behind some flatting to set mine, or with SCs AXs, in live games where BB won't squeeze enough--but this is the risk. When we don't flop the nuts or a draw to the nuts, we need to proceed extremely cautiously in these situations where we are super capped.

    If we assume we call pre with middle and small pairs, SCs and AXs, call flop with all pairs or trips, and then call down at MDF on the turn and river, 77 is a fold on the river.

    If he's making this play with AQ, AK, A2s, and any pair, we have over 50% equity and can call pretty easily.

    It's a pretty tough spot, how many combos he's bluffing and whether or not he takes this line with 66-44 changes our equity pretty substantially

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    • #3
      Given description of villian, thinking he is capable of taking this line with a bluff (to avoid a split), and no other read or knowledge of the player, I'd call. I could see him having better or worse, so my default would be to call. With a little more history and a better read, it might turn into a snap call or snap fold, but given only 45 minutes, I think it's a call.

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