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Two Pair When Flush Comes In

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  • Two Pair When Flush Comes In

    Posting these hands has been a great exercise for me to review and improve my game. Thanks to all for the feedback. Here is another one.

    Villain is a 64/8 over 250 hands. He limps then folds to a raise 47% of the time. My best guess of his range is below.

    Preflop - standard IMO

    Flop - I have a massive range advantage and nut advantage, so a large bet is in order. Based on the below range I have 95% equity with my hand. I still expect villain to call with any ace, flush draw, gutshot, pair + draw, etc. On flop villain has 26 combos of flush draws to 70 of top pair and 70 gutshots, 166 combos in total or about half his range.

    Turn - If villain called with the 166 combos we show above then only 26 of these improved or 15% - meaning we are still ahead a vast majority of the time. So another bet seems in order.

    River - Now our path is a little more cloudy as I would assume villain would fold out weaker gutshots and some weak Ax on turn. As we have sets, straights and flushes in our range is it better to check call river with two pair?

  • #2
    I think the river bet is quite bad. He clearly showed you he has a strong hand.

    I doubt most players, even fish, will still continue to call the turn with some junky hand like Qd9c. He has two pair or better here. If for any reason he couldn't let a weak Ace go, he'll most likely just check back the river if checked to.

    Remember how everyone plays here: checking back showdown value, betting big for value or as a complete bluff. But I don't see many bluff to be honest unless he turns a pair into a bluff which most players won't even attempt.

    So my play here would be check, then happily folding to a shove.


    • #3
      And after giving you this great advice I went on nd did the opposite. Check-called river, of course it was a flush cause fish can't fold flush draws even if you bomb it on the turn. Bye bye one buy in..


      • AJH914
        AJH914 commented
        Editing a comment
        Appreciate the feedback on the hand, sorry you ran in to a rough spot yourself.

        I've noticed that I have a hard time slowing down on the river after betting flop and turn. I definitely need to slow down, think through my opponents most likely calling hands and proceed accordingly. It was an awesome session otherwise but this was clearly an ugly line on my part.