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Good or bad call?

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  • Good or bad call?

    Hey guys wanted your opinion on a hand I just played 2/5 live, 850 effective. 7 handed, I raise in the high jack to $25 with 8H8D, low jack calls, small blind and big blind both call making the pot $100 to the flop. Flop is 7H4D7S and I lead for $65, The low jack calls, and the small blind raises to 150, big blind folds. Raiser has been the loosest at the table, not a maniac by any means but has turned over failed river stabs on several occasions throughout the session, missed draws where he has shown aggression etc. I make the call to 150, low jack folds his $65. Turn is a JD and villain snap shoves his entire stack $675 more. I tank and end of making the call, knowing its around 700 to win ~1700, putting him on a combo of 65 thinking he would shoot for more value with a 7, and would have 3 bet with a higher pocket pair preflop as he had been frequently. I knew there were ~16 or so combos of 7x that he may have but only saw him having 56 or 7x here. Did I make a bad call?

  • #2
    Slightly confused, did the LJ limp call, or are we the LJ and the non-blind villain is the HJ right behind us? Assuming the latter.

    Pre-flop is fine but we can probably open smaller, I know live games generally play bigger like this but there's no need to.

    Flop isn't a lead since we're the PFR, but I think a bet is fine here, would probably play flop like below:

    We could bet KK AA as well but this is assuming we want to protect our checking range. When SB raises they should be super strong, there aren't really many draws on this board and they're raising into 3 opponents, one who just opened pre-flop and c-bet-they're likely strong. Best case scenario we're against 7X 88-TT 44 65s and some BDFDs. We need ~22% equity to continue and are facing a ~43% MDF so we can pretty easily continue like below:

    When he shoves turn, we only have to call ~37% of the time to cover MDF, I think I would just continue as below:

    We're calling 675 into a pot that will become 1750 so break even is ~38%, QQ doesn't even have the right Eq to call if we're against 7X 65 and some diamond draws, so I may even advocate folding QQ here, they're just so likely to be nutted here.


    • #3
      Thank you!