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Good Bluff?

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  • Good Bluff?

    Villain 2038 Hands
    V 21 P 15
    3b 4 BB 3b 4
    FBB 64
    cbet 46/41/25

    We definitely can tighten up MDF wise on the flop, but even against top 4% of hands our lowest eq hands in the below get about the right price to call, IP:

    Line seems fine enough, right size shove for the breakout on the turn also, but is this guy tight enough preflop that we just have no fold equity here?

  • #2
    Preflop call is correct. On flop we probably have the range advantage on a middle card connected board. Our raise is correct as we have a draw with no showdown value, I'd just go bigger to something like $4. As played he needs 23% equity to continue and I think he has that with most/all of his range. His 2/3rds bet size looks like a premium hand or draw and he likely continues with all those hands. Then we have the ace - that hits his calling range pretty hard. I might check here and take the free card. I think the board is so wet that there just isn't any fold equity in jamming. We're pretty much playing to hit the flush draw and even then we might not be good. Even the J doesn't mean we have the best hands as villain has a bunch of Kx for better straights.

    Let's say this is his range - pretty reasonable based on the action. If anything it's a little wide based on his stats. This entire range smacks the board. He is supposed to fold some of this to your raise but I wouldn't be surprised if he continued 100%. Maybe he folds AKo, calls AKs. Either way he is continuing with a ton of good hands on the flop including plenty of aces that just improved.


    • Dilly
      Dilly commented
      Editing a comment
      Yeah continuing the bluff here is really only targeting JJ KK KQ