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Can We Fold This Close to the Top of Our Range?

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  • Can We Fold This Close to the Top of Our Range?

    https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=4qLbfXv

    Villain 443 Hands
    V 26 P 17
    cbet 52/50/-

    We need about 41% Eq to call, he needs to be jamming a lot of draws for us to have that which I don't think is going to happen, but if we're folding this are we only calling with exactly T9s 88 77?


  • #2
    I think this is an easy fold. You don't even have odds here by my calculation, factor in rake and you're dead.

    I would 3bet/fold this hand personally preflop.

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    • #3
      I don’t think this is a spot where you need to worry about balance, or where the opponent is worrying about balance for that matter. What draws donk lead in to three players? QcTc, Qc9c, 9c6c. Maybe one or two more but that’s about it and a suboptimal approach IMO. If he is only making this play with two pair plus and five combos of draws you’re in bad shape.

      I’m certainly guilty of making calls like this myself. I just watched JLs class on “when to worry about balance” and hopefully that has talked me out of throwing in the call so easily.

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      • #4
        radubalaj This is generally a fold for me, I definitely don't think we should be 3-betting 87s here, but not expecting to get 3-bet too often with two flatters, often being IP, we're almost definitely getting a good price to flat here pre.

        AJH914 I think against the majority of the population we are in bad shape as they have only straights and sets. But I think some portion of opponents is probably going crazy with a flush draw, draw with a pair, draw with a straight draw etc. And I can also see some amount of opponents assuming we're raising a draw here and wanting to "protect" their hand with AJo.

        If Villain's range is 2P+ and TXcc 9Xcc A6cc 5cc we have 29% Eq and we need ~36%. If we add KQcc the AXcc that probably doesn't 3-bet pre, and the low gutshots with cc our Eq goes up to 34%. 35% with JXcc. AJo 42%.

        So it's a losing call against everyone but the absolute most aggressive opponents, definitely would have preferred a fold.

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