Optimistic multiway bluff?

[Diamaner]

Hey guys, thoughts on this bluff multiways? this is always 78 in the opponents shoes on these 25NL games so i like it but maybe a bit spewy multiway? PFR and BTN are capped after flop checks through though. I thought a flush would also donk the river so wasnt too worried about that. Would like to know opinions though.
FYI villian tank folded 22 face up.

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/624Jt8T13

[radubalaj]

I personally don't like it. But hey, you made him fold a set, so good job. You must have found the only player at 25NL who can do that

When he bets here I think he is polarized due to bet size and flop texture to flush draws, set of 22, or other slowplayed sets, 2 pairs, a straight. He (and yourself) is the only player that is not capped as he simply checked to preflop aggressor.

He could still have something like a 9x, 77s, 88s that decide to bet bigger for protection. The thing is, when you raise, he folds all of these hands and he's left with very high equity hands.

The reason I don't like is that you have very little fold equity and then you are faced with a tough decision on the river.

But then again, I'm not a good player. Don't listen to me. Interested to see what others have to say.

[Diamaner]

I dont think this part: "He could still have something like a 9x, 77s, 88s that decide to bet bigger for protection. The thing is, when you raise, he folds all of these hands and he's left with very high equity hands." is strictly true...

I think he will peel a lot wider than that, what about hands like 9T,JT,TX, Pair + Gutter such as 98, XX of diamonds that will all be very likely folds and in some case certain folds. I dont think he only has sets and 2P when he calls a raise and i also think he folds most if not all 2P on the river.

Also if i was there with a set id hate my life.

[radubalaj]

Clearly 109 doesn't fold, that's 2 pair. What I'm saying is whatever he peels, he probably has you beat. The only question is how much does he fold on the river. Given that there are so many flush draws possible, I guess there are a lot of potential folds: all the marginal stuff, plus the missed flush draw.

At the end of the day, if he can fold more than 50-55% of the hands he is calling the turn with, you should be EV+.