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Weak fold facing flop check raise?

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  • Weak fold facing flop check raise?

    Not a spot that comes up often but as I aspire to move up in stakes I'm sure I'll see this more. Only 125 hands on villain. He is playing as a 39/6 with no check raises in 8 opportunities. The board is hard to hit and clearly he's missed the majority of the time. He has 33 and 22 - maybe TT - for sets. There is a mix of AT, KT and various top pair hands. There aren't many likely draws. 54 with backdoor flush draw? Or he simply has air and assumes I'm cbetting a hard to hit board (which I would). In reviewing this the day after my flop fold seems weak. I need 33% equity to continue but there are lots of bad cards for me. It's a board a solid player should check raise frequently. Thoughts?

  • #2
    It's a board a weak player would check raise frequently? Vast majority of good players have 100% 3bet from SB strategy (especially against BTN). So they are never here as the cold caller.

    When playing 39/6, he definitely has a lot of strong hands here: 33,22,32,45,maybe even 102s or 103s. But then also loads of 10x, ranging easily from 108 to A10.
    Looks like very passive stats to me, which means you should treat any sign of aggression with caution.

    I think folding is more than fine. You have all the overpairs, all the good 10X in your range here. I don't think you need to defend more against this player type.


    • #3
      If we c-bet range here which I think we should, we're facing a ~40% MDF, I'm fine folding 88

      I don't think we see a lot of logical bluffs here, we're probably against a villain who knows were range betting and is getting way out of line, or someone who's mostly raising TX and random sets and TP....either way I don't want to face more aggression with underpairs, I'd much rather continue with hands that can draw to beat TX, and by not having a 3-betting range on the flop, we can potentially have a pretty sweet raising strategy IP on the turn.