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Flop Overpair and Board Gets Worse

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  • Flop Overpair and Board Gets Worse

    Wanted to see if there was a better way to play this hand. Honestly once board got worse on turn and then river I wasn't sure how to proceed. I figured I had A4s and 44 in my range and could represent some nut hands so I kept betting. Bad idea? Villain is a 21/14, competent for the game.

    https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=324Hn2a8Y

  • #2
    I think our hand is just to good to "represent some nut hands". The flop cbet is fine, the turn is probably okay. But by the river we are turning a marginal made hand into a bluff even though we potentially have a fair bit of showdown value.

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    • #3
      This is an interesting hand for me because I'm not really sure how to play the flop.

      If we think about our range vs Bu and BB we should probably be checking. However our exact hand needs protection.
      I digress, that flop is a flop the BB is going to want to x/r a ton. High card is 8 or lower and pretty connected.

      If we range bet 1/3 (which I don't think we get to range bet btw) it's easier for the Bu to stay in wide and for the BB to x/r.
      Checking doesn't afford us any protection and our hand is very unlikely to improve.

      So I think it might be best to bet large on the flop, like 75-80%, maybe even more, like over pot. I would really like to get the Bu out of the hand and play IP or better yet just take it down.
      When we bet large and get called I would then check the turn regardless of who called.

      The bottom line for me is that 1/2 pot bets do almost nothing for us on that flop or turn. In fact I would remove that 1/2 pot button completely.

      TBH a hand like 88 that is very unlikely to improve in a MW pot is almost a pure give up for me. Meaning I'm trying to get to a cheap showdown.

      So I think the 2 best options are to check/call flop and try to make it to showdown cheap. Or bet large on the flop then play very cautiously if called.

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      • #4
        Flop, I would bet bigger for protection. If called, check-call turn and give up river.

        You are repping a set or a straight. Not even sure you would bet a set on the river as villain could certainly just have a straight. You would rather check-call allowing him to bluff or overvalue smth like 2 pair.
        Given it's quite hard to even have the nuts here, I don't see the point of 3 barrelling.

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        • #5
          i think you played it fine, except i would just check call the river. i think you should cbet the turn, which you did, because you have the best hand the majority of the time, the opponent should only have A4 in thier range.

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          • LondonImp
            LondonImp commented
            Editing a comment
            I'm not sure I agree with this. If you filter your database for times you've cbet flop and turn and then check-called river I can almost guarantee that the villain has it very, very often.

            This is something I went through with my old coach, and I think we've actually discussed it on the forum here before.

            What bluffs could the villain really have? The most likely would be a busted OESD but we heavily block that with 88.

            Otherwise we are relying on the villain overvaluing a 6 and that's a long shot.

        • #6
          Im reading through Mastering Small Stakes now and trying to learn about range balance, so hopefully this is a semi informed question. On flop our range has 48 combos of overpairs and only 14 obvious draws (A4s, 44, 87s). Is it correct to bet larger since our range is value heavy? Would we make the same bet with AA despite it not needing protection?

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          • #7
            No, it's the opposite. When we are value heavy we need to be betting smaller. The theory behind this is that we are going to win a larger portion of time, so we should set our opponent better odds to make their decision tougher.

            It is far easier to implement a balanced strategy when we use a single bet size across out entire betting range.

            When we start varying our bet sizes depending on the strength of our hands, we also need to vary the size of all of our bluffs to and make sure the number of combos are still all correct for each sub-category. This is very hard to play correctly and the ev we stand to gain from doing it correctly is less than the ev we are going to lose when we get it wrong.

            In short, yes use the same bet size for AA.

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