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Push-Fold on Bubble of Satellite

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  • Push-Fold on Bubble of Satellite

    Yesterday, I bubbled in a satellite in which 3 seats were given to 29 entrants. We were down to 4 players for nearly a half hour before I busted. For most of this time, I had between 9-12 BB’s in stack and was either pushing or folding with every action, never flatting or raising small. The guy to my immediate left had at least 30 BB, and the other two players had 15-20 BB. They all seemed to be solid players.

    Should I shove wider or tighter than normal in this spot? I shoved K6o, Q8s, J9o, QQ, and A2o without being called. In the hand where I busted, I shoved T8s and the BB called with AQs.

  • #2
    What do you define as "normal"? As in completely out of ICM pressure?

    Comment


    • mriebel
      mriebel commented
      Editing a comment
      Yes, completely out of ICM pressure.

  • #3
    Here's what we get using the push-fold tool from this site (so not payout considerations taken into account):

    Click image for larger version  Name:	No ICM.JPG Views:	0 Size:	148.0 KB ID:	51313

    It's important to remember that the weakest hands in the above range will be break even. We need to be playing with a slight edge so we should still be folding the very worst hands from here like 76s or JTo for example.

    Here's an example taken from ICM using the stack sizes you gave and assuming the top 3 places all get an equal 1/3 share of the prize pool:

    Click image for larger version  Name:	ICM.JPG Views:	0 Size:	354.9 KB ID:	51314

    I have set it so it only counts the hands that capture at least 0.10% of the prize pool to build in our edge.

    As you can see, we should apparently be shoving an extra ~7% of hands in this spot than in a "normal" situation.

    I actually find this quite surprising.

    I'd imagine the main difference between this and "normal" spots is that we should be folding a lot, lot tighter. I don't have time to run the numbers now, but I might be able to later.

    Comment


    • mriebel
      mriebel commented
      Editing a comment
      We used the BB ante for the amount of the BB.

    • mriebel
      mriebel commented
      Editing a comment
      I was actually on the button when I shoved T8s and busted. The other hands were in varying positions.

    • LondonImp
      LondonImp commented
      Editing a comment
      If the ante was bigger, and you were in a later position, then the ranges would widen. T8s is a standard shove in these conditions.

  • #4
    LondonImp gave a very thorough answer.In these types of satellites i have some minraise/call or fold pre,even at 10-12bb ,which is polar.I go to only shove or fold mode if the big stack is bullying the table because of icm pressure.In this exact hand that you busted the shove is fine

    Comment


    • #5
      To me it is about knowing what others are doing, not charts. Everyone playing by chart, or Gto , everyone loses.

      Comment


      • broke&livin
        broke&livin commented
        Editing a comment
        1.75% or 0.33% ?? difference is 1.42% then variance may be + or - 6% if you run 100 times.
        Last edited by broke&livin; 08-17-2021, 08:16 PM.

      • kkep
        kkep commented
        Editing a comment
        You can't possibly know what other players are thinking or doing. Why are you here seemingly against everything to do with theory? We are not taught to blindly follow the charts btw.

      • broke&livin
        broke&livin commented
        Editing a comment
        What might work for computers may not work for you. How many simulations computers run and how many can people run in their lifetime?

    • #6
      On a satty bubble I would fold tbh. In these spots I lean heavily on the Ax and Kx blockers for my shoving range in LP. I'm not playing any of those suited connectors like 76 -T9, T8s J8s and probably not Q8s, I'd rather jam K2s - K5s, K8o or even K6o than Q8s for example. Maybe that is really bad I'm not sure tbh but even just having K high will win more than having Q high and at this point the other players are all basically focused on knocking you out so blocking the strongest portion of their ranges(Ax and Kx) is important I think and being able to make a good top pair is kinda of important too.

      Comment

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