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$1,100 Live MTT at MSPT

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  • $1,100 Live MTT at MSPT

    Played a live $1,100 MTT at the Mid-States Poker middle stages. I am 40BB deep with 25k, Villain has about 35k or 58BB. Blinds 300/600.

    Villain is an aggro, but good (from what I gathered in 2 hours being at the table), thinking player. He's 3-bet pretty frequently and shown to be aggressive when in pots. Also has raised in early position with suited connectors, QJo, etc. Very involved.

    Villain raises UTG+1 to 1500
    Hero makes it 4500 on Button with AKo
    Villain calls

    Flop is 10-6-6 rainbow. Pretty dry board, and I put villain on a medium pair, AQ (even though I block), AJs, could hold J10s.

    On this board, I bet 4k into about a 10k pot. Villain calls.

    Turn is Jc. Villain checks.

    Again, villain could have had J10 pre, but with the paired board his 2 pair is worthless if I'm repping a large pair, so not as worried about the turn. Still think he has something like 77-99...maybe an AQ float with backdoors.

    I have only about 16k left into an 18k pot, so I shove all in looing to rep the big pair, but also with backdoor outs to broadway with overs as well. Hoping to fold out his medium pairs, or a 10.

    Villain snap calls. Shows 67d, flopped trips.

    Is my line ok here? Are there times I check back turn? Flop is a must bet with a dry, low paired board, then you turn broadway with overs...Given my stack to top ratio on turn, a river shoved made most sense if I were to be going for value, as well as trying to get him off one pair but me still having outs. I definitely did not have him on holding a 6...when I ran the GTO preflop calling 3bet range, I see that 67s is in there with 50bb, but at the very bottom of range. Still, in real time, did not have him with any 6.

    Thanks all for help!

  • #2
    I think your line is fine, especially since you could fold out 99, 88, and 77. I think 76s is one of the few hands with a 6 (and maybe 65s) with which he would call the 3-bet. Did you also think Villain could have ATs?


    • Mikey McD
      Mikey McD commented
      Editing a comment
      Thanks for the response. I do think Villain has A10s here. Which also my shove on the turn puts him in a tough spot to call that. So getting him of A10, J10, K10, as well as 77-99 was my goal while also having a lot of outs if called.

  • #3
    This seems fine to me mate.

    Your shove needs to work >47% as a pure bluff to be profitable. I think this is probably achievable on its own, but you almost always have outs to fall back on when called anyway.
    Last edited by LondonImp; 07-26-2021, 05:39 AM.


    • #4
      I think you made a mistake and getting owned isn't fine.


      • Mikey McD
        Mikey McD commented
        Editing a comment
        Lol. Thanks for the academic insight. Now get upstairs, your mother is done microwaving your hot pocket.

      • broke&livin
        broke&livin commented
        Editing a comment
        ?? There isn't must bet flop niether.

    • #5
      I think a cbet is mandatory but I would have bet smaller 2500-3000. I'm assuming this is 9 handed?

      On the turn your hand might mix but I think mostly check. So when we bet small we keep UTG range a bit wide and the J is much better for the V's range.
      We do pick up some BD equity but we still could be ahead too. I think another small bet (had you bet smaller on the flop) or check back would be nice.

      We don't 3! our Jx combos pre and the V is calling AJs KJs QJs JTs he also has ATs QTs T9s.

      Our value range on the turn is basically QQ+ so you really only need about 15-18 bluffs and I assume a portion of our range picked up a FD on the turn, likely some combo draws.

      Even vs a small cbet I think the V starts folding some under pairs since his range is quite narrow, I would think 33 -55 go in the muck on the flop. 77 88 mix call fold pre-flop so that essentially leaves him with 66 99 TT JJ so by targeting under pairs on the turn your getting about maybe 6-8 combos to fold. The other folds would be the A and K high float but you partially block them. .

      So yeah IP I think we mostly if not always want to check back AK.
      Would you jam QQ+ on the turn trying to get worse to fold? That would be really bad...


      • Joseph
        Joseph commented
        Editing a comment
        I love your analysis. I would have played the hand the same as Hero but hopefully I can learn from your take on the hand. I can see now that hero has very few J or 10 in his 3 betting range, whereas villain has a lot in his calling range. Also villain can have a 6 sometimes. Do you think villain folds most of his J on the flop? . If so that leaves villain with mostly 10 on the turn with a few 6 as well. I suppose there is the feeling that you could get villain to fold some under pairs..

      • kkep
        kkep commented
        Editing a comment
        I would probably peel my JXs with BDFD as they all have two overs to the T and block some TX like AT KT that the BTN could have

    • #6
      First of all open/call pre from villain is very loose so he makes a mistake doing it.On the flop you can bet a little bit smaller amount like 2500 or 3k to keep the spr a little bit higher so if you valuebet turn then villain will have a harder time calling oop(and you keep maybe more of his worse hands in the pot and your fold equity if you bet or shove will be bigger).On this turn you always check back though because you dont gain at all any extra equity and try to see a river in position
      Last edited by GusP; 07-31-2021, 08:49 AM.


      • kkep
        kkep commented
        Editing a comment
        V's hand combo is in range, well maybe. Hard to say only knowing 2 of stack sizes at the table.
        Last edited by kkep; 07-31-2021, 09:31 AM.

    • #7
      Originally posted by GusP View Post
      .On this turn you always check back though because you dont gain at all any extra equity
      Hero turned a gutty


      • GusP
        GusP commented
        Editing a comment
        Wrong way of saying it.What i mean is against villain's range the turn card will not change equity distribution very much