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Going out on flush draws and flips

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  • Going out on flush draws and flips

    Hi all - I have been going out of tournaments recently quit regularly on flush draws and flips. Just wondering if people go for these, I believe I am correct when it comes to odds etc. and generally this is just after cashing but still a way to go. Do people go for it in these situations? Couple of examples below.

    PokerStars - 125/250 Ante 30 NL - Holdem - 9 players
    Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

    MP+2: 12,267 (49.1 bb)
    CO: 10,678 (42.7 bb)
    Hero (BTN): 3,146 (12.6 bb)
    SB: 8,544 (34.2 bb)
    BB: 1,907 (7.6 bb)
    UTG: 1,972 (7.9 bb)
    UTG+1: 6,850 (27.4 bb)
    MP: 4,100 (16.4 bb)
    MP+1: 3,000 (12 bb)

    9 players post ante of 30, SB posts 125, BB posts 250

    Pre Flop: (pot: 645) Hero has J 9
    3 folds, MP+1 raises to 500, 2 folds, Hero calls 500, SB calls 375, fold

    Flop: (2,020, 3 players) K Q 6
    SB bets 1,010, MP+1 raises to 2,470 and is all-in, Hero raises to 2,616 and is all-in, fold

    Turn: (7,970, 2 players) 9

    River: (7,970, 2 players) 2

    Results: 7,970 pot (0 rake)
    Final Board: K Q 6 9 2

    MP+1 shows Q K: (Two Pair, Kings and Queens)
    (Pre 61%, Flop 57%, Turn 68%)

    Hero shows J 9: (One Pair, Nines)
    (Pre 39%, Flop 43%, Turn 32%)

    MP+1 wins 7,970





    PokerStars - 400/800 Ante 65 NL - Holdem - 8 players
    Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

    SB: 29,672 (37.1 bb)
    BB: 18,179 (22.7 bb)
    UTG: 25,927 (32.4 bb)
    UTG+1: 22,557 (28.2 bb)
    Hero (MP): 19,490 (24.4 bb)
    MP+1: 31,305 (39.1 bb)
    CO: 29,848 (37.3 bb)
    BTN: 17,804 (22.3 bb)

    8 players post ante of 65, SB posts 400, BB posts 800

    Pre Flop: (pot: 1,720) Hero has K A
    2 folds, Hero raises to 1,600, fold, CO calls 1,600, BTN calls 1,600, SB calls 1,200, fold

    Flop: (7,720, 4 players) 9 5 8
    SB checks, Hero bets 4,800, CO calls 4,800, BTN raises to 9,600, SB raises to 28,007 and is all-in, Hero calls 13,025 and is all-in, CO raises to 28,183 and is all-in, BTN calls 6,539 and is all-in

    Turn: (97,698, 4 players) A

    River: (97,698, 4 players) Q

    Results: 97,698 pot (0 rake)
    Final Board: 9 5 8 A Q

    SB shows J J: (One Pair, Jacks)
    Main Pot: [72,276]: (Pre 36%, Flop 7%, Turn 3%)
    Side Pot #1: [5,058]: (Pre 43%, Flop 7%, Turn 3%)
    Side Pot #2: [20,364]: (Pre 79%, Flop 15%, Turn 5%)

    CO shows 5 5: (Three of a Kind, Fives)
    Main Pot: [72,276]: (Pre 16%, Flop 5%, Turn 3%)
    Side Pot #1: [5,058]: (Pre 19%, Flop 64%, Turn 78%)
    Side Pot #2: [20,364]: (Pre 21%, Flop 85%, Turn 95%)

    Hero shows K A: (One Pair, Aces)
    Main Pot: [72,276]: (Pre 31%, Flop 28%, Turn 20%)
    Side Pot #1: [5,058]: (Pre 38%, Flop 28%, Turn 20%)

    BTN shows 8 8: (Three of a Kind, Eights)
    Main Pot: [72,276]: (Pre 16%, Flop 60%, Turn 75%)

    CO wins 25,422
    BTN wins 72,276





  • #2
    With draws and "flips", it's often a case of just knowing our equity and pot odds and making a straightforward decision. More often than not we are going to miss and go broke, but if calling off is +ev it must still be done. It will be profitable long term.

    Hand 1: With 12bb this is a preflop fold. Also, the BB could well just stick his stack in over the top considering how short he is which would be a disaster. Another reason to fold. This spot was avoidable.

    Hand 2: I wouldn't cbet this flop with so many opponents. When we bluff we rely a lot on fold equity which we're not going to have playing this multiway. Once the money goes in I think we have to call off, but we must realise in these spots an A or K is unlikely to be a live out for us. Any spade that pairs the board may also not improve us to the best hand. If you do want to cbet, I think we need to be using a much smaller size.

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