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btn vs bb with top pair on wet flop

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  • #2
    When the BB shoves you can expect to be behind, but I think you still have to call to meet MDF. But even his draws are going to have alot of equity against your hand.

    I think the real question here is what reads you had on this player. If he is passive post flop, then I think you can start considering a fold with this hand.

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    • #3
      To break even here we need to have 40% equity versus the villain's range, so I'd prefer 42-43% to give us an edge (outside of any ICM considerations).

      If we assume villain is going to check shove with TP+ for value, and then if we give him every flush draw and OESD available in his range then we have roughly 45% equity and can make the call.

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      If we lower the villain's bluffing range and assume he only check jams his flush draws 50% of the time (possibly more realistic?) then our equity falls to 42.7%, pretty much the cut-off of what I'd deem acceptable.

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      If villain is more passive than this, and either has a stronger value range or a smaller bluffing range then we need to fold.

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      • #4
        On a seperate note, I'm not a fan of your flop sizing.

        I could well be wrong about this, but shouldn't the 1/4 pot cbet be used we when are range betting? You've said yourself in your OP that your range is wide in this spot so I would prefer to see a more polarised bet size here.

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        • LondonImp
          LondonImp commented
          Editing a comment
          I don't know what you mean by 'this bigger bet shows to the opponent exactly the polarisation that I have'. When we bet using a polarised range, it means we have some premium hands and we also have some draws (semi-bluffs). This is not easy for the opponent to play against. If we are well balanced he can't simply ramp up the aggression against us because we can simply defend with our premiums and fold the draws that aren't getting the correct odds to call.

          This makes poker easy for us, and hard for our opponents.

          Finally, we want to be betting big with our strong hands because we want to be able to get maximum value from our opponents. If we have a strong hand, and the opponent can call a big bet, then this is what we should be doing. We polarise (i.e. include bluffs) so we get paid.

          When we bet small we give the opponent great odds to continue. What does it mean if they raise? I don't honestly know - this is very opponent specific. When we veer from a GTO strategy it should be to exploit a weakness we see in our opponent, if we do it for no reason then we are the person likely to be throwing away equity.

        • jjpregler
          jjpregler commented
          Editing a comment
          On this board we have a strong range advantage.

          http://www.pokerstrategy.com
          Board: 4dKcJc

          BU 61.37% { 55+, A5s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J5s+, T6s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, A2o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+ }
          BB 38.63% { A9s-A2s, K8s+, K6s, K4s-K2s, Q2s+, J9s-J2s, T9s, T7s-T2s, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A8o-A3o, KJo-K2o, Q2o+, J2o+, T4o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 64o+, 53o+, 43o }

          I would bet range here on the flop. That's what I thought when I first saw the bet. then I went back to double check to see if the range advantage was strong enough.

        • LondonImp
          LondonImp commented
          Editing a comment
          jjpregler GusP - You're right actually. I underestimated how strong our range advantage was.
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