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Screwing Up River And Getting Punished

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  • Screwing Up River And Getting Punished

    UTG: 1,585 (79 bb)
    UTG+1: 1,575 (79 bb)
    MP: 1,505 (75 bb)
    MP+1: 1,478 (74 bb)
    LP: 1,458 (73 bb)
    CO (Hero): 1,601 (80 bb)
    BU: 1,385 (69 bb)
    SB: 1,425 (71 bb)
    BB: 1,488 (74 bb)

    Pre-Flop: (57) Hero is CO with Q Q
    2 players fold, MP calls 20, 2 players fold, Hero raises to 117, 3 players fold, MP calls 97

    Flop: (291) 9 9 3 (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero bets 146, MP calls 146

    Turn: (583) K (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero checks

    River: (583) 7 (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero bets 292, MP raises to 600, Hero ??

    1st level of an MTT, no info on villain.

    Preflop: Standard isolation. Perhaps potential to go a bit bigger? Villain has identified himself as potentially weak and players often treat their chips like monopoly money at the start of MTTs.

    Flop: I think my cbet is too big. I would prefer to go 1/3 pot instead of 1/2 pot.

    Turn: Hand is now somewhat marginal so I think checking behind is fine.

    River: From a technical sizing perspective I think this is spot on. River IP SPR>1 so using 50% as my small sizing. All okay. I just don't think this is a great spot to actually fire the bet because I'm not sure villain can call with enough that I beat. Should I just check behind and at least guarantee I realise my equity? Or are we still okay going for thin value with a view to folding to a x/r as the villain has played the whole hand passively?

  • #2
    I agree with your flop analysis, I would go 30% with a large part of my range there. Turn is also good.

    On the river, you holding the QsQc would have something to do with the math in a solver and value betting thin. When you block flush draws and BDFDs, I think the solvers prefer to check. Going for thin value might be better with QhQd.


    • LondonImp
      LondonImp commented
      Editing a comment
      Thinking this through a bit more, it sounds very counter-intuitive.

      Surely we should be more inclined to value bet thinly with blockers to the nuts and check behind when we unblock the nuts?

  • #3
    It's so hard to say here vs a passive limper with no other information. I'll typically range them something like this (some might have a bit more suited stuff and less off-suite
    but this for like a VPIP 40% PFR 3 others are much wider. Most of them don't have much of a limp fold range.

    JJ-22,AJs-A2s,K7s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,AJ o-A2o,K8o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o

    Post flop is where it's great to have a history vs them but I think (much) more than 50% of the limp callers also donk bet.

    Some will play very strong hands tricky but I think the majority like to fast play to get all the chips in.

    So this is a flop they will often donk flop with trip 9's, pocket pairs and some will also do it with random over cards and or actual draws that make some sort of sense.

    Some will play flop as a check call (few check raise) but then donk turn when the spade doesn't complete the flush and the K is kinda good for you.

    On the river they will almost always opt for a large lead rather than a check raise with their nutted hands because it's the end of the world if you check back like AA AK or whatever you might have otherwise called their bet with and a small lead as a blocker with their marginal stuff.

    So I don't know what to make of the river. tbh I like to check back just to see their 2 cards and to get a sense of how they might play post flop.

    jjpregler I don't think it matters what the solver would do in this hand. In order to run it I think we would have to node lock an 80BB UTG+2 limp range and probably allow for donk bets too which wouldn't really be a thing either.


    • #4
      Thank you both for your feedback


      • #5
        I am curious why you would check the turn. Isn’t the k on the turn better for your preflop raising range than his limp/check-call. Why take take a pot control line in position with queens this early in the tournament.
        1. I would have bet the 50% on turn and checked back on the river with that flush to get some free information on the river.
        2. Pardon any obvious errors in my analysis as I am still learning gto and new to thinking about ranges


        • #6
 - Welcome to the forum mate.

          On the flop we likely have a large range advantage against a limp-calling range, this means we can bet small with our entire range.

          The villain does not call with his entire range though. He folds the junk which leaves his range stronger than before whilst ours remains the same.

          This means that on the turn, generally speaking, our range advantage is a lot lower.

          Yes, the K is still better for our range, but our range advantage is no longer large enough to keep betting with everything.

          This means that we need to start betting with a polarised range. We still have a decent number of 9x combos, as well as AA, AK, and KK, all of which can bet for value. We balance this with some draws: here it will be some combinations of flush and straight draws.

          The pot is already of a considerable size for 2nd pair. If more money goes into the pot then we are likely behind. We want to play small pots with weak hands, and big pots with strong hands.

          Does that all make sense?


          • Raddad_101213
            Raddad_101213 commented
            Editing a comment
            To add to this , we don't want to turn a hand thats toward the top of our range into a bluff. How many worse hands are calling a turn bet?

        • #7
          I would check back river, but I probably don't thin value bet often enough. Once the fd comes in its going to be hard to get value from 44, 55,66,88 which are villains most likely hands you are looking to get value from. FD, pp, and the occasional 9 are his most likely hands after he calls flop. I would be raising FD on this flop if im villain, because he will have more 9's in range. But since you have a read that he is a weak player, he may not.You not looking great against that range.
          Last edited by Raddad_101213; 05-13-2021, 11:04 AM.


          • #8
            LondonImp ok Faraz what happened?


            • LondonImp
              LondonImp commented
              Editing a comment

              In game I folded. Population underbluffs that spot at such a high frequency I think it's quite an easy fold, despite the great pot odds.
              Last edited by LondonImp; 05-14-2021, 11:57 AM.

            • kkep
              kkep commented
              Editing a comment
              Faraz always leaves the river a mystery in his quizzes

          • #9
            Moderator Edit: Forum policies state that responses should be constructive and not inflammatory.
            Last edited by jjpregler; 05-14-2021, 07:50 AM.