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Quiz 430 - Going For Thin Value On The River

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  • Quiz 430 - Going For Thin Value On The River

    JL's advice on the river seems surprising. He says something along the lines of "there's no point betting and turning our hand into a bluff because we're not going to get a better hand to fold."

    Alex Fitzgerald once said that if we're not trying to go for value when we think we have the best hand then we shouldn't be playing NLHE.

    I think we should be betting small for value here. Sometimes are going to lose to a weak Qx hand, but there are loads of combos that we are still ahead of that will call. 22-33, 55-77, 74s, 64s, 54s, 43s.

    If we can bet and then beat over 50% of our opponent's calling range then we have a very valid bet for value here which I think is missed in the quiz.

    I know that solvers often choose to check behind on the river instead of going for thin value. The reason for this is often that the small amount of value we stand to gain is offset by a well-structured check-raising range from our opponent. I think if we get x/r here we can easily fold, the population simply does not bluff enough in these spots and so we can discount this as a potential pitfall.

  • #2
    Don't hold me to this but *I think* IP we need like 70%+ equity to reopen the action on the river. I also think trying to get called by under pairs and some K high is far to narrow of a range to target. I'm not even sure we bet TT on that river but I'm not sure TT doesn't bet turn either.

    So I suppose you want to pot it to get 50% of the V's range to fold in which case I think our value range needs like 75% equity 2 value to 1 bluff would then give our range 50% equity.
    Is that how the math works in these spots?


    • jjpregler
      jjpregler commented
      Editing a comment
      That is what Nick uses in the study group. Jonathan has used in the past the 50% + 1 definition several times in the past. I am not 100% sure which is right, but I have to say I am biased toward Jonathan. Most of what I have learned as a player comes from Jonathan over the past 10 years.

      In MTTs we always want an edge, so he has said about 53% + 1 for MTTs.

      I also know that Jonathan considers what the villains calling range will be in a spot and not a GTO calling range.

      And BTW, I disagree with Alex Fitzgerald here. It's ok to pass up marginal spots in poker, especially in MTTs. If betting has a positive equity really small like 0.3BBs in an MTT, I think your are better off checking in an MTT.
      Last edited by jjpregler; 05-04-2021, 06:03 AM.

    • kkep
      kkep commented
      Editing a comment
      Matt Affect said it in one of his webinars. I know it's in the 70%ish range. If Nick said it's 70% I would tend to believe him as my memory isn't as sharp.

  • #3
    On another note, I just took that quiz and scored 40/40. I would check that river 100%. You have 88 on a AQ994 board. Definitely doesn't reach the 70% standard mentioned above, and if it makes the 53% + 1 it barely makes it and I think that may be optimistic. I definitely think we have decent showdown equity checking behind since we already beat all of the junk in the BBs range that by betting we are giving back equity. All of the junk hands are most likely folding, but some of the hands we beat may turn into bluffs.

    Just consider his range for a second.BB calling range has QX at almost 100% frequency. And with the A turn, that may freeze many QX hands from betting as it is only a marginal hand OOP on the turn. Maybe QX can bet for thin value on the river, but he has more QX combos than 4x combos. 22 - 77 (-44) is only 30 combos and they are not definite calls. I can see enough people even mistakenly folding 4x. But even at that the 4x combos are smaller in number than the Qx combos. In the BB should be 4Xs but more than 1/2 the 4Xo folds preflop. So the QX:4X might be near 2:1.

    Even if you add the hands and all of the worst hands do add up to 53%+1, it might barely make it, and it would be optimistic to think that the BB is calling 100% of those hands.
    Last edited by jjpregler; 05-04-2021, 06:32 AM.


    • #4
      Thanks for the feedback guys.

      I'll make sure I'm not getting carried away with my river value bets going forwards.


      • #5
        FWIW, here is the definition lifted from the TMC:

        Click image for larger version

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        • kkep
          kkep commented
          Editing a comment
          He also says we rarely go for thin value IP on the river unless the V is a calling station who will call with worse hands and almost never check raise.
          Generally on the river IP we bet either all in with a shallow SPR or at least 50% pot with an SPR greater than 1

      • #6
        I did some follow up today on the 70% equity quote.

        It came from Matt Affleck:
        You need 70%+ equity to re-open the betting when it is checked to you on the river.