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MS MTT - 33 button versus short bb

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  • MS MTT - 33 button versus short bb

    Mid stakes MTT... in the money, far from final table, folds to us on the button with 33..

    BB has 12 bb, SB has 60bb, we have 100bb - so open shove out of the question

    We open 2.1x, SB folds, BB who is a strong player calls - 5.7 bb in pot

    Flop J82 with two spades, we don't have 3 of spades...

    What is our strat?
    - check back?
    - bet 1bb and fold to jam
    - bet 2bb and fold jam
    - bet call versus jam

    If we bet 2bb and he jams the math is we have to call 9bb to win 18 (ish)

    This provoked heated discussion between 3 MTT regs...
    - one thought bet-fold fine
    - one thought bet-call gross but price was too good and he has all offsuit t9, qt, as well as all spade combos
    - one thought check back and call off on some favorable turns - plus an ace or king might shut down his jx, 8x jams

  • #2
    If the BB is playing a reasonable and balanced strategy then he is going to c/shove any pair and any draw from his stack size. All of his draws will have 2 overs to your 33 even his naff gutshots like 79o
    Board: Js8s2c
    Equity Win Tie

    BU 41.00% 41.00% 0.00% { 3d3h }

    BB 59.00% 59.00% 0.00% { 2d2h, 2d2c, 2h2c, 64s+, 54s, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, Ks9s, Qs9s, Jd9d, Jh9h, Jc9c, Ts9s, As8s, Ks8s, Qs8s, Jd8d, Jh8h, Jc8c, Ts8s, 9s8s, As7s, Ks7s, Qs7s, Jd7d, Jh7h, Jc7c, Ts7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, As6s, Ks6s, Qs6s, Jd6d, Jh6h, Jc6c, Ts6s, 9s6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, Ks5s, Qs5s, Jd5d, Jh5h, Jc5c, Ts5s, 9s5s, 8s5s, 7s5s, Ks4s, Qs4s, Jd4d, Jh4h, Jc4c, Ts4s, 9s4s, 8s4s, 7s4s, As3s, Ks3s, Qs3s, Ts3s, 9s3s, 8s3s, 7s3s, 6s3s, 5s3s, 4s3s, Ad2d, Ah2h, Ac2c, Kd2d, Kh2h, Kc2c, Qd2d, Qh2h, Qc2c, Jd2d, Jh2h, Jc2c, Td2d, Th2h, Tc2c, 9d2d, 9h2h, 9c2c, 8d2d, 8h2h, 8c2c, 7d2d, 7h2h, 7c2c, 6d2d, 6h2h, 6c2c, 5d2d, 5h2h, 5c2c, 4d2d, 4h2h, 4c2c, A5o-A4o, Ad3s, Ah3s, Ac3s, Ad2h, Ad2c, Ah2d, Ah2c, As2d, As2h, As2c, Ac2d, Ac2h, Kd3s, Kh3s, Kc3s, Kd2h, Kd2c, Kh2d, Kh2c, Ks2d, Ks2h, Ks2c, Kc2d, Kc2h, QdJh, QdJc, QhJd, QhJc, QsJd, QsJh, QsJc, QcJd, QcJh, JdTh, JdTs, JdTc, JhTd, JhTs, JhTc, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, Jd9h, Jd9s, Jd9c, Jh9d, Jh9s, Jh9c, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Jd8h, Jd8s, Jd8c, Jh8d, Jh8s, Jh8c, Jc8d, Jc8h, Jc8s, Jd7h, Jd7s, Jd7c, Jh7d, Jh7s, Jh7c, Jc7d, Jc7h, Jc7s, Jd6h, Jd6s, Jd6c, Jh6d, Jh6s, Jh6c, Jc6d, Jc6h, Jc6s }

    So against that strategy you have 41% equity - so no you can work out each of the options you listed above and see which is the most profitable for you