Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

ICM spot on the FT bubble

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • ICM spot on the FT bubble

    Hey guys, this is a hand I just recently played. It's from a $1.65 buy-in and $1,500 GTD.

    A few rounds before this, the same situation unfolded. It folds to me in the SB, I raise to 3.5x and he jams. I folded. A few orbits later, here we are again....

    Game Hand #660814106 - Tournament #23306971 - Holdem(No Limit) - Level 58 (80000.00/160000.00)- 2021/01/13 02:09:29 UTC
    Table '20' 8-max Seat #4 is the button
    Seat 1: Villain (3,281,040.00)
    Seat 3: Villain (7,023,244.00)
    Seat 4: Villain (3,255,708.00)
    Seat 6: Hero (4,247,214.00)
    Seat 8: Villain (4,068,718.00)
    Villain posts ante 20,000.00
    Villain posts ante 20,000.00
    Villain posts ante 20,000.00
    Hero posts ante 20,000.00
    Villain posts ante 20,000.00
    Hero posts the small blind 80,000.00
    Villain posts the big blind 160,000.00
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Main pot 100,000.00
    Dealt to Hero [Ac Jd]
    Villain folds
    Villain folds
    Villain folds
    Hero raises 480,000.00 to 560,000.00
    Villain raises 3,888,718.00 to 4,048,718.00 and is all-in

    Hero?


    I am wondering if there's any arguments for folding this hand vs. calling? I have already ran this spot in ICMizer, so I know what the 'correct' play is but am curious to see if there's any solid arguments in folding vs raising. For those of you that don't have ICMizer, I can post the results upon request.

    All input welcome!

    Thanks!
    -Maniac

  • #2
    I'm never open-folding AJo from the SB when it folds round to me. If that's what you mean by 'folding vs raising' (obviously we can't raise facing a shove but just want to be clear).

    If we know we're highly likely to get jammed on if we raise our usual 3.5bb there are a few options available to us:

    1) Open smaller. If we think the opponent is playing mainly a shove/fold strategy then we can open to 2.5bb instead. This disincentivises the shove in the first place as there's now less money in the pot for him to win. It also means we get worse odds on the call so our decision is easier.

    2) Limp-call. We get to see a flop with a relatively strong-broadway hand without having to commit to many of our previous chips to the pot. Using a good limp-call strategy as part of our small blind approach enables us to play a greater number of hands profitably which is good.

    3) Open shove. Always an option, and one I often take. This way we are the ones excerting the ICM pressure on our opponent, not the other way around. And if my chips are going in the middle I want to be the one shoving with FE, not calling off and praying to hit.

    As played, I would fold. There are still a couple of stacks shorter than us that will be under pressure to get in there and gamble before we need to start putting our tournament life on the line with high variance plays.

    Comment


    • #3
      I would open shove this hand from the sb but if I opened 3.5x , then I am calling him off when he shoves. maybe it is because I am getting sick of him shoving on me.

      Comment


      • #4
        LondonImp Yeah, I did originally type the correct action of 'folding vs. calling' on the first line but made a type-o on the second line by saying 'folding vs. raising'.

        **So my question is this: When we open AJo from the SB and get jammed on by the BB for 25 bigs, can anyone make an argument for folding vs the BBs jam opposed to the call-off that ICMizer suggests?

        LondonImp said:
        "1) Open smaller. If we think the opponent is playing mainly a shove/fold strategy then we can open to 2.5bb instead. This disincentivises the shove in the first place as there's now less money in the pot for him to win. It also means we get worse odds on the call so our decision is easier" -I do genuinely like the idea of opening a little bit smaller for a few reasons: 1) We risk less chips therefore save more when we have to fold vs a jam and 2) We still have the opportunity to pick up the pot pre-flop. I am not sure I agree with the idea that raising less pre-flop will disincentivize the villain from jamming for the simple fact that if he's willing to rip 25bb into the pot vs. a 3.5x open. I am sure he will do the same vs. a 2.5x open as there is only a difference of 1BB. I could be wrong, though.

        "2) Limp-call. We get to see a flop with a relatively strong-broadway hand without having to commit to many of our previous chips to the pot. Using a good limp-call strategy as part of our small blind approach enables us to play a greater number of hands profitably which is good." -This is my favorite idea of the 3 you have suggested . This strategy really depends on the villain. Does he change his strategy facing a limp vs. facing a 3.5x open?

        "3) Open shove. Always an option, and one I often take. This way we are the ones excerting the ICM pressure on our opponent, not the other way around. And if my chips are going in the middle I want to be the one shoving with FE, not calling off and praying to hit." -This is a close 2nd for me as my favorite. You make really good points. We will be the ones to capitalize on the FE by being the ones applying the ICM pressure, therefore hopefully making our opponents make mistakes by over-folding or calling off too lightly.

        The reason I prefer limping vs. shoving is that I think my opponents will jam lighter. Shoving is appealing because of the pressure we will be applying to our opponents but I think all of this really depends on what mistakes we think our opponents will make. Will they call off lighter if we shove? If that's the case, we should shove. Or, will they jam wider if we limp? If they do then we should limp. LondonImp do you agree with my reasoning?

        Joseph we could open jam this hand. I don't think it's a good idea to call off because 'I am getting sick of him shoving on me' lol but we could call off because we think that he might be doing so with a wide range that AJo crushes.

        Comment


        • #5
          Regarding your comment about "only" the difference of 1bb. If he's got a stack of 25bb, then 1bb accounts for 4% of his entire stack. That's too much to ignore. I know my strategy definitely changes against a 2.5bb open compared to a 3.5bb open - as it should.

          Again, I'd expect his strategy to be very different vs a limp as opposed to a 3.5bb open.

          Yes, your opponent might jam wider against a limp, but you're also giving him the opportunity of a free flop. We just cannot say decisively what he will do.

          Finally, I am folding as played. It might be profitable to call off, but it's also high variance. In a $1.65 tournament I'm confident that I have an edge over my opponents and don't need to take high variance spots. I will be able to find better spots and outplay them. If I was playing in a $165 MTT then I'm almost certainly a dog and so happy to call off.

          Comment


          • #6
            "Finally, I am folding as played. It might be profitable to call off, but it's also high variance. In a $1.65 tournament I'm confident that I have an edge over my opponents and don't need to take high variance spots. I will be able to find better spots and outplay them. If I was playing in a $165 MTT then I'm almost certainly a dog and so happy to call off."

            This is what I was looking for. Because that's what I was thinking but wanted to see if others felt the same way. I agree, that yes this might be profitable, but because I have a skill edge I felt fairly confident in my abilities to make an even deeper run had I folded instead of calling.

            Comment


            • #7
              Regarding your comment about "only" the difference of 1bb. If he's got a stack of 25bb, then 1bb accounts for 4% of his entire stack. That's too much to ignore. I know my strategy definitely changes against a 2.5bb open compared to a 3.5bb open - as it should. -Sure. However, if he's jamming 25bb vs a 3.5x open, I doubt he's thinking the way you are as you are likely thinking a few levels higher than he is.

              Again, I'd expect his strategy to be very different vs a limp as opposed to a 3.5bb open. -Agree.

              Yes, your opponent might jam wider against a limp, but you're also giving him the opportunity of a free flop. We just cannot say decisively what he will do. -Exactly. Plus, we risk 3bbs less by limping and can easily muck without much more though if we face a jam.


              Comment

              Working...
              X