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Easy Fold on River facing a Jam?

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  • Easy Fold on River facing a Jam?

    Ran pretty deep in a $55 bounty tournament on stars today. Here's a hand that i felt quite sick after playing lol.

    At this point there are about 75 entrants remaining out of about 4000 or so. So we're quite deep....

    Anyway, at this point I did not have many stats on villain, but he seemed pretty tightish during the 25 hands I saw him play.

    Villain opens 2.7BB from the HJ (41BB stack). it folds around to me in the BB with AcAs, with which I made a small 3bet to 6.52BB (40BB stack). Villain calls.

    Flop comes Kd Kc 8c (pot: 14.73BB)

    I check, Villain bets 7.37BB. I call

    Turn: 5h (pot: 29.45BB). It goes check/check

    River: 5d

    At the time my thought process was to get some thin value from smaller pocket pairs, or maybe even A high.

    I bet 8 BB. Villain tanks and then jams for 27BB total.

    I did what, at the time I thought I must be a hero for, and folded (lol....)

    Was this a good fold? If not, what bluffs could Villain have here?? I don't see how he could possibly jam with anything other than a boat.

    Please let me know what you think. I felt broken after this hand!!
    Last edited by robbie27@my.yorku.ca; 12-01-2020, 07:05 PM.

  • #2
    It is possible he did that with less than a boat, but... I believe the fold is probably right. Couple possible bluffs: Ace high hoping to avoid a split, or a missed flush draw (though you block a lot of those). It's doubtful, but he might have been over valueing another pocket pair. You just don't have a good enough reason to believe he's bluffing. It's not impossible that he is, but without knowing him better, I'd say fold and find a better spot. Only thing I would have probably done differently would be to raise a little bigger preflop. Not sure it would have changed the results, but... that's the only thing I would have done differently.

    Comment


    • LondonImp
      LondonImp commented
      Editing a comment
      Changing the size of your 3! based on the strength of your hand is a terrible idea. You need to stop that immediately or anyone worth their salt will exploit you very quickly.

    • robbie27@my.yorku.ca
      robbie27@my.yorku.ca commented
      Editing a comment
      Noted. What are your thoughts about this situation (hand) in general?

    • LondonImp
      LondonImp commented
      Editing a comment
      Other than the 3! size issue, it seems fine. Maybe a small cbet on the flop would've been good, but nice to see a disciplined fold on the river.

      He definitely does have some bluffs in his range. The line you take post-3! is very weak. And the tiny river bet is something I've seen JL do to intentionally induce bluffs from the opponent. Overall though, we'd want him to be bluffing about 30% of the time to make this a +ev call which is probably unlikely.

      You've missed a critical piece of info in not giving us his bounty size. This is a major factor in PKOs.

  • #3
    Don't feel too bad about it, but I think you should call. Given how you walked us through the whole hand, I think your lack of experience shows. Completely unreservedly disagree with machinist.
    Last edited by MoeLestin.jr; 12-01-2020, 10:28 PM.

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