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Do We Need To Balance X/R When Short Stacked In MTTs?

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  • Do We Need To Balance X/R When Short Stacked In MTTs?

    I've tried posting this hand on a couple of Discord threads but it gets completely swamped by other hands before a discussion can start.

    iPoker, €4.55 + €0.45 - Hold'em No Limit - 2,500/5,000 (400 ante) - 7 players
    Replay this hand on CardsChat

    UTG: 308,348 (62 bb)
    MP: 148,412 (30 bb)
    MP+1: 434,473 (87 bb)
    CO: 122,393 (24 bb)
    BU: 300,259 (60 bb)
    SB: 27,790 (6 bb)
    BB (Hero): 87,372 (17 bb)

    Pre-Flop: (10,300) Hero is BB with 5 7
    2 players fold, MP+1 raises to 10,000, 3 players fold, Hero calls 5,000

    Flop: (25,300) 6 3 K (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP+1 bets 12,650, Hero ??

    Villain is a LAG and seems to be trying to bully the table.

    First things first, should we be defending preflop here? If we were 100bb deep then no. But as we get shallower we should actually be defending wider with a view to x/r all in with basically any pair. 75o is wide, but it's still in the charts on this site.

    So how many combos do we want to x/r for value here? If we're saying we're happy to get it in with any pair or better this is what it looks like in flopzilla:

    Click image for larger version

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    Thanks to our strategy of defending so wide, we have a whopping 299 combos we should strongly consider x/r all in with. That's a lot.

    We "only" have 202 bluffs in total, and that includes our very weak BDFDs.

    Surely we have to shove all our bluffs that are better than a gutshot here to get anywhere near balanced right?

    Or does balance simply not matter in these spots?

  • #2
    Well your more the guy i would be asking for advice but got two cents on this .
    I was watching a video on MDF and it was noted that from the BB you don't have to meet the MDF for the bet because you have so much junk in your range from the BB that in order to continue on later streets you have to over fold a lot of the time.
    Might be because from the BB you have so much in your range that the pairs balance themselves , you have 268 combos better then middle pair and and 535 mid pair or lower if we add in the 44 gutshots and call gutshots and mid pair our bluffs , call 7s+ our value bets and it looks about 1 value bet to 2 bluffs and you have some showdown value most of the time .
    Might be able to call that some kind of balance because it keep 77-QQ guessing

    Comment


    • #3
      Hey buddy, thanks for the feedback.

      What you're saying about not needing to defend at MDF is certainly correct for deeper stack situations, but I don't think it applies as much here. Generally we're either going to be all-in or folding on the flop when our stacks are this short and so there's less of a worry about continuing across further streets. Another issue we have with playing such a wide range when deep-stacked is that we're very often going to be dominated which leads to a lot of reverse-implied odds spots (basically we either win a small pot or lose a big one). That's just not the case when short-stacked, if we get any piece of the flop we can look to get all our chips in the middle.

      I've been studying Matt Affleck's Short Stack Play in Tournaments webinars, and I'm currently going through Advanced Bubble Play with JL and Scott Clements - the challenge is really pulling all this information together.

      This would probably end up being a spot where it's okay to shove sometimes, and okay to fold sometimes. Such is poker. As we're getting closer to the bubble I probably did make the right decision and fold considering the size of my opponent's stack. If he were shorter however I would have a lot of FE for sure and x/r bluff would probably work far more often than required.


      You're interpreting the flopzilla combos incorrectly buddy. I had the results set to cumulative, so each number includes the sum of all combos above it too.

      Here is the same info but in absolute terms:

      Click image for larger version

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      Two pair is still our best possible hand and there are 20 combos of it which matches the previous flopzilla result.

      But now if you look at the overpair value you'll see that there are only 6 combos available (FYI it's the AA combos). Compare that to my previous post where it shows 26 combos of "overpairs". This is because it is counting all the overpairs AND the better hands i.e. the 20 combos of two pairs.

      Does that make sense?

      It's vital that we're interpretting the information we have correctly otherwise we'll end up make strategy decisions that could be plain wrong.

      Comment


      • #4
        Martin I would love to hear your input.

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