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Jonathan Jaffe Miscounting Combos? (Or me being stupid?)

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  • Jonathan Jaffe Miscounting Combos? (Or me being stupid?)

    Here's a screen shot from JJ's course "Over-Betting on the River Part 1- Over-Betting for Value":

    Click image for larger version

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    Basically what we're looking at here is a spot where he chooses to overbet the nuts, and then as part of his analysis provides the combos in his range that he would use as bluffs (top-left).

    With the exception of the 33 and 55 combos, everything seems wrong.

    Just looking at the first example: "AsKx = 4". Well that's wrong. We have AsKh, AsKc and AsKd. The 4th combo is AsKs which is the nuts, not a bluff.

    So I make it a total of 18 combos of AKo/AQo/KQo with no spade, not 24 as per the screen shot. A 25% reduction is fairly substantial.

    Then if we look at the totals of AK/AQ/KQ, this seems even more off. For AK: AhKh, AhKc, AhKd, AdKd, AdKc, AdKh, AcKc, AcKh and AcKd. This is a total of 9. So when we include AQ and KQ this gives us a total of 27 bluffs. Not 72. This is a HUGE difference.

    What an earth am I missing? Surely this has been noticed before.

    I'm guessing I'm missing something embarassingly easy that will make me delete this thread when it's pointed out...

  • #2
    I came up with 42 combos, 18,18,6


    • #3
      Well something isn't right here...

      I might just email JJ. Bit of a long shot I know, but he did respond the last time I contacted him.


      • #4
        I think I removed the As and JJ didn't. If we count all the combos without card removal I'm getting 51 combos.
        27 no spade combos, 18 off suite combos with 1 spade, and the 6 paired combos.

        I don't think you counted the suited combos with no spade AK AQ KQ which is 9 combos
        Last edited by kkep; 10-09-2020, 06:11 AM.


        • LondonImp
          LondonImp commented
          Editing a comment
          No I agree with your count, I get 51 total too.