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Decision on every street - IP v Loose Opponent early in Half-Price Sunday Million

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  • Decision on every street - IP v Loose Opponent early in Half-Price Sunday Million

    - Villain is 39/18 over 50 hands. Seems a bit sticky post-flop but probably not enough hands seen to allow this to sway decisions.
    - We're just a couple of hours in at this point so no payout considerations.

    Here are roughly what I expect the ranges to look like preflop:

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    Any thoughts on these?

    On the flop we have a large range advantage (58% v 42%) and also a nut advantage (over pair of better 23% of the time versus villain's 12%). Based on this maybe I should've cbet here?

    My thinking at the time was that the villain is likely to call anyway. Also, I have a bad habit of not having any bluffs in my turn range when I check behind on the flop so thought this would probably fit in well (of course if I bet range then this doesn't matter anyway).

    Looking at how many strong hands I would want to cbet here I now think this is a mandatory bluff on the flop if I want to be anywhere near balanced.

    on the turn I pick up some extra equity with the gutshot and proceed with my plan for the delayed cbet bluff.

    The x/r was a surprise. Being in position I think my implied odds are very good i.e. if I hit my hand on the river I'm very likely to be able to stack my opponent.

    The only issue is that 98 is a likely holding and an 8 would give me the straight but the villain a boat.

    I make my straight on the river and he shoves - mandatory call right?

  • #2
    u got stacked.

    Mandatory ? Hmm..


    • LondonImp
      LondonImp commented
      Editing a comment
      What would you have done differently?

  • #3
    Now i might be wrong here but i see 97 hands with a 9 preflop , after flop 36 hands containing 9 with 6 beating you and 30 they will probably feel alright about and 12 JT that beat you , 3 7s 3 6s 3 8s .
    I was more worried about JT looking at it and it seems more likely . i would call , Though the way i play i would have bet 2/3 pot on flush draw flop and if that is way wrong or a little wrong please show me how


    • #4
      I would call.


      • #5
        So I made the call, the guy had 9h2h and I doubled up.

        Now what can I do with this info?

        I find it interesting that he chose to check the turn when the board got even wetter. He gave me every chance to check behind and realise 100% of my equity.

        For sure we can see that if he checks twice on a board that should be favourable for his range we cannot take that as a sure sign of weakness.

        If we know he likes to get tricky/trappy when he does flop well, this weakens his actual betting range right? If he was to lead into me we can now eliminate some of his stronger holdings and play accordingly.

        The river shove makes no sense. He's only getting called when he's behind and probabaly not going to get any better hands to fold. This for me is a clear sign of a weaker opponent, but I don't really know what to do with this? Call down a bit wider I suppose if he's overvaluing made hands.


        • #6
          JL has actually reviewed this hand:


          • RealJPB
            RealJPB commented
            Editing a comment
            I love that they're doing these. Also glad to see JL agreed about just cbetting flop.

          • LondonImp
            LondonImp commented
            Editing a comment
            Yeah, me too mate. I've seen a couple of yours that got reviewed too