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Short Stacked On The Bubble - Strange Hand

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  • Short Stacked On The Bubble - Strange Hand

    https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/224HJG2kD

    In this hand we're about 100 eliminations from the bubble, but it's a very large field tournament so 98% of people remaining are getting paid. This is bubble play right?

    We only have 8 hands on the villain but he's VPiPed 5 out of the 8 times so looks happy to play.

    The preflop open seems standard to me. Could there be an argument for just jamming?

    On the flop we have the range and nut advantage, and our actual hand has a bunch of equity too. But this close to the bubble does it make more sense to just check-behind and minimise variance?

    The turn lead is strange, but with a (very) marginal hand and a lot of potential draws to the nuts we're not going anywhere. Should we ever jam?

    Do we need to bet the river? We're not getting called by worse, but could we potentially turn our hand into a bluff and get the villain off a weak Jx/Tx hand?

    I don't know if it's relevant of not, but I sattelited into the tournament so a min cash would be worth ~9BIs.

  • #2
    you should stick to cash. It is a different game.




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    • CrazyEddie Reloaded
      CrazyEddie Reloaded commented
      Editing a comment
      exception being people who feed mtt with cash winning

  • #3
    I appreciate you taking the time to respond, but to be honest I really enjoy tournaments.

    It's not a lot of money to most people, but just min-cashing the sunday million was enough to get my heart racing a bit. You don't get that multitabling micro/low stakes cash.

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    • #4
      Just come in for 2x and fold to a raise. Players at these stakes jam much wider than they should pre-flop. TBH because of that I don't even open K4s there. I'm like A2s+ K6s+ Q7s+ J7s+ ect

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      • #5
        Thanks for the feedback as always kkep .

        I understand the logic behind the 2x open, stack preservation is everything. But I feel that people will defend so wide without even thinking about from the BB when they face a min open (although judging from the ranges posted below, this is probably correct). I think just the extra 0.15bb I add to my open at this stack depth increases my fold equity enough to offset the increased loss when I do have to fold to a 3bet. That's definitely up for debate of course, and I don't have a big enough database yet to be able to offer definitive proof.

        I find it surprising that you are seeing players jam too wide. Here is how the SB and BB "should" be responding to my open:

        Click image for larger version

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        In my experience players are not actually jamming wide enough, but again this is based on a small sample and at smaller stakes.

        Although this is technically a $54.50 MTT, there was a huge guarantee ($1m) and so it attracted ~25k runners. A huge portion of these (including myself) will have sattelited into this, as well as a large number undoubtedly taking a shot outside of their bankroll. This would lead me to suspect that the standard of this MTT was lower than would be typical for the buy-in and more reflective of the standard of play I face in my usual games.

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        • kkep
          kkep commented
          Editing a comment
          I'm trying to filter my DB for these spots to build a hand range model for their jamming range but I'm not coming up with the right keys yet.

          Anyway

          When the opponents left to act have a good re-jamming stack under 25BB the optimal bet size is always a min raise because it gives them the worst possible price on their all in raise. - Michael Acevedo

        • LondonImp
          LondonImp commented
          Editing a comment
          I'm away this weekend but it sounds like an exercise worth pursuing so I'll try and help you out with PT4 when I get back.

          And thanks for the Michael Acevedo quote, I'll be sure to make the changes to my strategy

      • #6
        I'm almost always up for studying just about anytime as well

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